Future Management & Innovation Consulting Inc.

Almost everybody has heard of it or got already in touch with the word "Podcast". As an artificial connection of Apple's iPod and Broadcast is the modern Podcast a new form of media and information. Recently the number especially of Video podcast has increased because of higher internet speed and the new adjusted products out there in the market. With a bigger storage than usual mp3 player in the past, these gadgets can not only play music but also store a large amount of videos and other informations.
And exactly here is the connection to the internet television - the future of TV. Of course you won't probably watch a 2 hrs movie with a screen that has the size of a sticker. But for news, short information, fun stuff it works quite well.
A couple of years ago the print media was complaining a lot that they were loosing market share and their clients towards the internet. The answer was something like the e-paper or similar approaches - like Napster and the music business a battle hard to win. I call those reactions "chaotic repair actions" cp. picture .

But instead of trying to compete with the internet, publishers could focus on their own core value - trustable news for "on the go". That what is a newspaper or magazine all about - isn't it. A reliable source which people count on in order to make their own decisions.
Maybe it is just nonsense but what would happen if e.g. newspapers bring up their specialized video podcast. Private video broadcast like YouTube is all over the place - even at the presidential election in the United States. Just connect a + b and you have the solution - the customized internet television. By the way... do you remember the launch of CNN and how many people said "nonsense - news television"???

by Quercus

Not only since yesterday there is a tough battle going on between the biggest computer game producers like Sony (Playstation), Microsoft (X-Box) or Nintendo (Wii). You might think that this is the future of gaming... maybe you are mistaken.

Look at the toy makers from Denmark - LEGO. After the hard years with the peak in 2004 (with a loss of 226 Mio. Euro) the "cube" empire is fighting back; and successful. Funny thing as well is that it all happens where the computer games originally upraised - in JAPAN.

How did this happen and why is LEGO now back on the winning track??
The answer is once again so simple - back to the roots or in "consulting language" Core Competence.
LEGO remembered the great potential as a "educational toy". The emphasis is now back to inspiration, creativity and construction.
Not only in Japan but in South Korea, Singapore, China,... kids experience problem solving in a fun way to do. LEGO established there over more than 120 "Education center".
But it doesn't stop with the simple cubes we all know from our childhood. With for example programming and robotics kids are learning early and in a practical way how things work and they will adapt this experiences later on for sure.

Was there not a rumor spread of prohibit violent computer games!!?? Well parents out there this might be the answer.
I had a look at the website myself and hell I wanna go to "school" there. For sure I will stop by in Aoyama (Tokyo) to check it out... wait for my report.

But once again to be prepared for the future sometimes doesn't take more than just to look back from where you were coming. Very often there lays the future hidden. With LEGO it did.

by Quercus

アレクサンダー大王やナポレオンを引き合いに出すまでもなく、ヨーロッパは歴史上主に東方へ勢力を広げることで拡大してきた。21世紀の今、東方拡大は極めて平和的に、しかも東方の国々自らが望んで行われるようになった。
今年の始まりと同時、つまり2007年1月1日、ヨーロッパ連合EUは新たに2カ国の加盟国を迎えた。ルーマニアとブルガリアを加え、27カ国の大所帯となった欧州連合は、今後暫くのあいだ新規加盟については見合わせているが、１０ヶ国が一度に追加加盟した2004年に続き、ますます東への広がりを見せている。

EU内では人の移動は基本的に自由である。EU人である限り、EU内のどこに住むのもどこで働くのも自由なのだ。その結果豊かな生活と賃金を求めて人々が移動するのは、極めて自然な流れと言えよう。つまり、EUが東へ拡大すればするほど、人の流れは逆に西へと向かう。実際、豊かな西ヨーロッパ諸国への、東ヨーロッパ諸国からの労働者の流入は、国内の雇用を圧迫するものだとドイツなどでは久しく問題にされているし、フランスでは安い農産物の流入で農家の収入が下がることへの抵抗運動がある等、東から西への流れは問題も多く孕んでいる。
しかし西へ向かう流れはヨーロッパ内に留まっていないのだ。

先月、正月休みを長めにいただいてドイツに旅行へ行ってきたのだが、現地のテレビでたまたま見たドキュメンタリー番組の内容が、なかなか興味深いものであった。ドイツのテレビ番組なのでもちろんドイツ目線でEU拡大のニュースが伝えられたあと、では新しい仲間となったルーマニアとブルガリアとはどんな国でしょう、という紹介があった。その流れの中ではあるが、ルーマニアの縫製工場の労働者として画面に映し出されたのは意外にも（親しみある）東アジア系の顔立ち。というのも、より良い労働条件を求めてルーマニアから西側ヨーロッパ諸国へ人々が流出した結果、ルーマニア国内では工場労働者が不足し、その穴を埋めるために中国から若い女性たちを呼び寄せて雇用しているというのである。工場経営者は、中国人たちは安い賃金で勤勉に働く、と、また中国人雇用者たちは、中国で同じ仕事をするよりたくさん稼げるので親に仕送りができる、と双方共に満足そうなインタビューが紹介された。

ルーマニアに限らず、ロシアでも中国人労働者は確実に増えているそうである。東欧から西欧へ、中国から東欧へ、東から西へと向かう人の流れは留まるところを知らない。外国で暮らすことは、言葉や食事など日常生活にいうまでもなく不便を強いる。にもかかわらず、豊かさを求め軽々と国境を越え、西へ西へと向かう人々。東欧とロシア・中国、旧共産圏の国々の経済発展は、西の向こう、これから先どこへ向かうのだろう。

by Muthase

先日オフィスで、“一念発起”氏の先輩の発言として紹介されたフレーズ。「歴史を学ばない者には未来は描けない。」だそうである。

今年の秋、多くの著名な歴史家が相次いで亡くなった。ヨーロッパ中世社会史の阿部謹也氏、フランス中世史の木村尚三郎氏、古代ローマ史の弓削達氏など、その研究成果を学会内部に死蔵させることなく、一般向けに分かりやすく紹介した功績は大きい。彼らはまた歴史分野に留まらず、社会に対して発信する、ものを言う学者たちでもあった。元フェリス女学院大学長の弓削氏は護憲論者として知られ（右翼団体に自宅を銃撃された事件が記憶にある方も多いだろう）、また元一橋大学長の阿部氏は、自身の専門分野の研究から思考を広げ、日本の「世間」論を導き出すに至った（これは差別問題などの議論に大きな影響を与えることとなった）。

この社会で起こるどんな成功も悲劇も、その成立過程と背景を見ないことには、更なる展望も繰り返さないための対策も編み出すことはできない。
以前アウシュビッツ収容所展を観に行った際、そこには先生たちに引率された小中学生も多くいたのだが、会場に置かれた感想ノートへの書き込みに違和感を覚えた。「ヒトラーはとても悪い人だと思いました。」「差別はいけないことなのでしてはいけないと思います。」等々。“間違った”感想ではないだろう。しかし、ヨーロッパにおけるユダヤ人差別は中世から続く数百年の歴史を持つ、非常に根深いものであるということや、世界が戦争に突き進むこととなった時代の背景を知ることなく、膨大な量の残酷な写真や遺物を目にするだけでは、繰り返すべきでない歴史も、「一人の悪い人の仕業」で終わってしまう危険があるのではないか。うわべだけではない歴史を見ることによって初めて、人は自分を、今を生きる当事者として客観視することができるのではないだろうか。

阿部氏に次の言葉がある。「歴史学とは、人間の尊厳を確かめてゆく学問の一つである。」
冒頭にご紹介した言葉と併せ、歴史学が決して、過去をほじくり返すだけの、後ろ向きで暗い学問ではないことを主張したい。偉大なる研究者の皆様のご冥福を祈りつつ。

by Muthase

What is the reason for economic wealth? - It all lays in the productivity of manufacturing technologies. When steam power was driving the spinning frames after 1769 it caused 200 times more productivity than before. Fabrics suddenly became much cheaper and people were able to buy more. This development demanded for a new infrastructure which gave more people new work. But this development was slowing down because not every business is growing with the same speed.
Eventually there is a productivity factor which we cannot increase on a short term and it becomes so expensive that additional growth is not profitable. In the 1820's the productivity factor was the transportation costs. The result was that the productivity was stagnating. This development or cycles are called Kondratieff's. Named after the Russian Nikolai Kondratieff. Those cycles are repeating in a 40 - 60 years timeframe.

These days according to Nefiodow we are now within cycle number 5 - the information technology. And if you noticed, the productivity of a computer is reaching its end. As a fact computer doesn't make the office worker faster in his daily work any more. The demand for consumption goods is filled (CD/DVD player, digital cameras, mobile phones, computers,...).

What are the indicators to recognize a slowdown of productivity or in other words how is it possible to see the change coming? Again a look into the past is helpful in this matter.

Governmental Distribution wars - who gets what?
1930's: Weimarer Republic bursts in the fight of unemployment insurance.
1980's: Social liberal coalition in Germany is breaking because of the new indebtedness.
Today's: Social insurance as a general and health care insurance in detail are the challenges of societies.
Minorities (handicapped,...) are always losers in this war.

Tariff war
The behavior is all times the same. When productivity increase is missing, companies tend to force politicians to close the domestic market against goods from abroad. Look at China - Europe - USA... any questions?

Society
In difficult times the dress code changes towards classical clothes. Because to stand out with your style might cost you the job. More women are wearing today again conservative fashion like pantsuit or costume. Coincidence or intention...?

Unemployment rate
Probably the easiest signal to notice. In booming times Companies are increasing their workforce since the market is growing and they need any worker they can find out there. But if in a long term boom the productivity decreases, costs cutting methods reaching its end and at the same time the market price is becoming more competitive, what happens... companies produce less. But less production needs less workforce and companies are releasing people.
- Handcraft - 300.000 releases
- Banks - 10.000 releases
- Semiconductor - 17.000 releases and this only in Germany.

Fusion, Merger, Amalgamation
Enterprises need to make profit - as simple as that. Without profit they need to cover the cost with assets or at the end private capital. Market competition are pushing profits almost down to "0". What is the way out of this dilemma...? Kondratieff contractions are standing out through merger and acquisitions (M&A). Either enterprises (primarily smaller once) become overtaken or going bankrupt. Otherwise the merge together to powerful units in the hope of synergy effects and cost sharing. But those cost effects are questionable. Fights about market share are the consequence at the final end.

But how to escape this trap..? How the title says - productivity is the key to Innovation and to profitable growth. Companies need to try new things, invest more money, encourage R&D departments in order to find that thing what increases productivity. This productivity increase will lead to a break trough innovation.
Several rumors are out there... from environment protection, recycling, energy supply until a more effective way to share information (a Just in Time Information flow). What it will be at the end, we all will find out in the "near" future

by Quercus